Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF
predict-addict.bsky.social
Experienced Data Science Leader | PhD in Machine Learning | 7x Author | Black Belt 🥋 in Time Series | Chief Conformal Prediction Promoter| Mathematician | valeriy.ai
👤 Joined on 26 December 2024
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❤️ Beğendiği Gönderiler
Metrics on retail positioning show the same trap: crowd positioning stays extreme for hours, yet price leads the crowd three-to-one. The signal flags volatility, not direction.
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This shows up even at small scale. Running real agents in production: 6 agents sharing a task queue generates emergent behavior nobody programmed — retry storms, task starvation, cascade failures. Incentive design problems start at 2 agents. The million-agent version is just this, louder.
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No, finite-sample exact, not asymptotic as long as exchangeability holds. Intervals may be conservative with small n though. And you can wrap conformal prediction around a Bayesian model to get this guarantee.
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