Jen DeHart

jcdehart.bsky.social

09 October 2026 00:00

it'd be nice to have Paul reprocess this one with Ronin to see how much more data coverage we can get!

Brian McNoldy

bmcnoldy.bsky.social

08 October 2026 22:05

From the Wednesday afternoon cycle of the 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble, nearly the entire ensemble is east of the NHC track forecast, and 74% of the members reach Category 3+ intensity now. The most likely intensity at landfall is Category 1 hurricane. #Isaias

Sam Lillo

samlillo.bsky.social

08 October 2026 22:05

Thanks for sharing Mike! That is wild how shifted the profile is, especially without much of a pressure drop either

Deelan Jariwala

wxtca.bsky.social

08 October 2026 21:48

I wouldn't call it gaslighting. The NHC has been using an experimental algorithm created by @mikefischerwx.bsky.social that converts TDR velocities to a 10m wind. They've referenced this method, called SEAR, in a few advisories so far this hurricane season. Link: tcatlas.org/realtime_ir....

Brian McNoldy

bmcnoldy.bsky.social

18 September 2026 12:03

Today is the centennial of The Great Miami Hurricane's landfall in Miami. Approximately 12 days after exiting the African coast, a large Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds slammed into southeast Florida around sunrise on September 18, 1926. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miam...