“Life changing” is a subjective term that probably doesn’t help too much here. For the median household that’s paying for a car loan and some credit card debt or paying down some of the mortgage. Invested it might also go to a kid’s college.

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El-Sayed will probably be fine given that there's a governor's race to turn out Dem voters for Benson. Will there probably be a lot of ticket-splitting? Yeah. But not nearly enough and Rogers I don't think is doing enough to win.

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I do not believe people like Mike Rogers or Michelle TaFoya can win because much like Harris and Dems had to pick ways to part with Biden without pissing off the base, Rogers and TaFoya have to distance themselves from Trump in ways that will piss off the base.

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It's a good sign that James City County and Williamsburg city remain near the top. I don't think anything of note has changed from the last check-in. I expect VA-2 to flip, VA-1 to be a pure toss-up and John McGuire narrowly favored in VA-5, though turnout issues mean it will be close.

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Virginia early vote check-in number 3. Today we hit 674,571, or 15% of 2024's total votes. James City County sits at the top again, with 29% of the 2024 vote. Waynesboro, which sat at number one last check-in has barely budged (reporting error?). The other localities look pretty familiar.

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