Brian LaMarre

blamarre.bsky.social

17 October 2026 18:14

The drier air, shown by the lower dew point temp and sharp gradient in the precipitable water (PWAT) analysis, is slowly pushing southward across FL. The 11 AM ET temps range from the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s over South FL to the low 60s temps and near 40 dew points over northwest FL.

Kim Wood

drkimwood.bsky.social

22 September 2026 14:36

Since 1988 when the NHC took responsibility for the eastern North Pacific, 44 hurricanes have intensified by 60+ kt in 24 hours (double the 30kt/24h threshold for RI). However, Hurricane Polo is in rare territory at +85 kt in 24 h. Only Linda (1997), Otis (2023), and Patricia (2015) outpaced this.

Kim Wood

drkimwood.bsky.social

22 September 2026 13:57

Oh good grief, the waters near Hurricane Polo are ~ridiculously~ warm according to recent Argo float data. Combined with a conducive atmosphere, I'm not surprised that NHC calls for ongoing RI up to category 5 strength.

Richard Dixon

catinsight.bsky.social

03 September 2026 14:29

Inspired by a comment from @mktippett.bsky.social on a different platform: as well as shear being markedly higher and mid-latitude relative humidity being lower than usual, the relative MDR SST (showing both W and E sections vs 20S-20N tropical mean) is also pretty darn low in 2026...

Brian McNoldy

bmcnoldy.bsky.social

27 August 2026 14:35

Thirty years ago, the "Main Development Region" (MDR) in the Atlantic was first defined as the area "from ~10° to 20°N between the west coast of Africa and Central America". This is where about 85% of major hurricanes form. [1/3]