Ok that's the thread. I am really proud of this research, I think it's some of the best we've done. Hope you'll get the chance to read it in full. Up here: persuasionuk.org/research/bre... Finally, big thanks to @ippr.org & as ever @convergent-opinion.bsky.social for their partnership on this. End!

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NEW: How robust is opinion change on Brexit/Brexit @persuasionuk.bsky.social research properly stress tested it. We find a fair bit of softness. We think headline Rejoin support is more like 52 v 48% (!) rather than ~64-36% you see in polls. Not fatal for Rejoin but worth paying attention to🧵

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europe footing the bill for ukraine’s defense

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I think I found him

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Putin has never said that he will agree to a peace agreement if he gets the rest of Donbas. What Putin has said is that if Ukraine gives him he get the rest of Donbas, then he will be willing to begin negotiations about the rest of Russia's conditions for peace.

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