fabulous little thread and report on why rejoining the EU might not be so popular when voters are confronted with the reality of what #rejoin actually means. also "demographics" playing its part. "natural effects" changing the vote 10 years on... the report in the 11th post in the thread.

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This is great work by @steveakehurst.bsky.social, @morganj0nes.bsky.social and @persuasionuk.bsky.social. Why Rejoin might not be as nailed-on as some are arguing, what might make people think again, and why psephologists get all coy around death: strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/how-real-i...

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Ending the triple lock is one of the biggest gambles of Andy Burnham's career - but since then there's been barely a peep about it In fact, the only MP to mention it at PMQs was... Andy Burnham Why is his gamble proving so much less disastrous than the winter fuel cuts? My Substack post:

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This is really good research on the EU from Steve - the rejoin argument is winnable, but is going to be difficult. (If Cameron had appreciated this in the 2010s then history would be very different..) For example, payments into the EU Budget are more problematic than freedom of movement.

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Interesting and valuable work on how robust the current polling is. If the conclusion is right, and the public would support rejoin only if were only the old terms and could be achieved in 12-18 months, then the prospects are not good. But still useful guidance for the rejoin campaign.

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