Seems far more likely we’ll get AI that lets 1 employee do the work of 1*x employees / do a day’s work in 1/x days. And so depends on x and on whether the additional work adds to profits vs. is needed to compete with other AI users.

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Or better: access to the *kind* of cognition/intelligence we're likely to get access to. Like, I think if you got drop-in ai employees that were human-grade, all bets are off. I just dunno if/when that happens.

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I think there's a legit chance of a bubble in the specific sense that all the profits get competed away and there's just massive consumer surplus! I think a lot hinges on whether access to cognition/intelligence (or whatever you call it) has diminishing returns or just keeps going.

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Signs pointing to a finance bubble, but I dont see a foundational tech bubble atm (just like solar PV, that would be an awesome outcome given how much of the surplus has passed to consumers)

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Yeah. There are some estimates that companies with a combined headcount under 10,000 need revenue that's, like, the size of France's GDP? Just... seems unlikely unless the more zany singularity people are right, and very soon.

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