Todd Kemper
kempertodd.bsky.social
Conservation biologist. Wildlife and nature conservation, cycling, skiing, and good vibes. Sometimes geopolitics gets the best of me. Kelowna, BC
👤 Joined on 23 October 2023
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Iran's IRGC Navy warns all crew of oil tankers in the vicinity of Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports that host Americans to evacuate.- Iranian State Media
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One important caveat: the models have never been verified in this territory. They have real, demonstrated skill at this lead time for ordinary events, but no ensemble has ever forecast a 3.5C El Niño because one has never happened. We are both figuratively and literally in uncharted waters.
Show PostIf we instead look at the new relative oceanic niño index (RONI) that subtracts out warming across the tropical oceans, 11 of 14 models predict a record strong 2026/2027 El Niño event, with odds of a record sitting around 77%.
Show PostCurrently 13 out of 14 dynamical models expect a record setting event based on the Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies (ONI), with overall odds of a record sitting at 91% across all 667 model ensemble members.
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Sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific are shockingly warm with anomalies as much as 8-9°C above normal. Strong westerly wind burst events will continue to develop this growing warm pool, leading to the record breaking El Niño event later this year.
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