Dr. Alice-Agnes Gabriel
inseismoland.bsky.social
Associate Professor Scripps Institution of Oceanography UCSD, affiliated researcher LMU Munich, EGU Seismology Division President, earthquake source philosopher, high-performance computing enthusiast, mommy
👤 Joined on 21 October 2023
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- 21 Eki 2023, 14:43
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Where the fault had been quiet the longest, the average slip matched the deficit accumulated since the last large earthquake. Where the interval was shorter, slip exceeded it, so the deficit may act as a lower bound. We call this minimal slip predictability.
Show PostThe fault twists along its length like a helix, and models based on the pre-earthquake data anticipated this geometry. At depth the southward rupture ran faster than the shear waves it radiated (#supershear), while the shallow part stayed slower over about 150 km.
Show PostWe combine GPS measurements from before the earthquake, satellite images, seismic records and a chance CCTV video of the fault sliding with hundreds of 3D dynamic rupture simulations in SeisSol, where rupture speed and slip emerge from physics instead of being prescribed.
Show PostThe 2025 M7.8 Mandalay #earthquake ruptured about 480 km of the Sagaing Fault and killed thousands of people. In our paper out today in Nature Communications, we looked at how much of it could have been anticipated from data collected before it happened. doi.org/10.1038/s414...
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