Finally, Dem-adjacent Unaffiliateds are crushing Rep-adjacent Unaffiliateds. Every possible signal in the early vote data is positively screaming an extremely Dem electorate relative to 2022 and 2018, and while we can't find much evidence on persuasion either way...just look at the polls.

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Democrats are crushing their benchmarks on turnout across the propensity spectrum. Republicans are way behind. Republicans can make up ground with a turnout surge on E-Day but every day in early vote like this means falling further and further behind.

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Looking *only* at people who voted early in-person in 2022 and 2026, 28.1% of Democrats have cast a ballot...that metric was 17.0% in 2022. Republicans are at 15.3% versus 16.6% in 2022. Unaffiliateds are 21.3% vs 15.2% in the last midterms. This is NOT just mode-shifts, it's MUCH more than that.

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ncearly.peark.es is updated for Day 6 of early vote. Black, Asian, Latino, and Democratic-registered voter share of the electorate running *above 2024 levels* while registered Republicans are 20.7% of ballots....they were 33.6% in 2024 and around 30% the last two midterms. White Rs are the reason.

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Wow turnout is on pace to be historically high (even compared to presidential election years?!) overall while being crushingly low for Republicans?

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