The 17.1% forecast is almost certainly wrong ***by a lot***, but it’s excellent for intellectual accountability when people put these kinds of predictions out

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Me as a reviewer: The paper needs a clearer structure, contribution, and assumptions. Also me: Anyway... here are 3 pages of random musings in the order they occurred to me.

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It is *wild* to me that in the humanities there are top universities are still doing take-home exams. Apparently it's a cost-saving thing. I wonder if employers know, or whether they could start requiring disclosure, or whether grads might start saying on their CVs that they had closed book tests...

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Writing is lumpy. First you stare at a blank page for 3 weeks in agony. Then you write a 15 page report in 3 days. Then you refuse to look at it for a week. Then you go back and read and start making it more than just opaque ramblings. Then you hand it off to reviewers to tear to pieces....

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Today, Robert E. Hall was awarded the 2026 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. This is from a statement he released after the announcement:

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