📊 #IFSSatStat: Public service spending will be the Chancellor’s key Budget challenge. While day-to-day departmental spending is set to grow by 2.4% in real terms this year, this will drop to an average of 1% over 2028–29 to 2030–31, making existing plans harder to deliver.

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When you plot it like this, it's not hard to see why the IMF singled out the UK for its fiscal consolidation plans. The forecasts are predicated on some very questionable spending assumptions, yes, but still: quite remarkable.

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In 1925-26, more than 96.5% of 14-18-year-olds in the London area were estimated to be in work. Published 100 years ago, the Ministry of Labour Gazette offers a glimpse into a very different labour market. Explore the source and more via ESCoE's Historical Data Repository: tinyurl.com/4zbem9t3

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Really pleased to make my debut on @theifs.bsky.social podcast with @helenmiller.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social. We get into the huge uncertainty around the OBR forecast, why the real story is the pressure on public spending, and even manage to sneak in a discussion on PuFins (not the birds!)

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Great to be on @theifs.bsky.social podcast to talk about public service spending plans and pressures ahead of the Budget - do give it a listen

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