Nick Ridpath

nickridpath.bsky.social

16 October 2026 11:42

Different earnings forecasts give very different headroom estimates. The OBR are more likely to stick to the lower end of this range, but reasonable judgments on earnings alone could give you anything between £13bn and £38bn of headroom.

Nick Ridpath

nickridpath.bsky.social

16 October 2026 11:41

There’s been a lot of talk before the budget about the government’s “headroom” – the amount by which it will be meeting its fiscal rules in the OBR forecast. A thread on what we do and don’t know about headroom, and why we should pay less attention to it:

Bee Boileau

beeboileau.bsky.social

16 October 2026 10:18

Higher inflation and slowing spending growth pose challenges for public services over the next few years. Rather than topping up spending totals, could the Chancellor bank on improvements in public sector productivity - getting the same public service performance with less £?

Bee Boileau

beeboileau.bsky.social

16 October 2026 08:37

Great to be on @theifs.bsky.social podcast to talk about public service spending plans and pressures ahead of the Budget - do give it a listen

João Sousa

joaosousa.bsky.social

16 October 2026 08:37

Really pleased to make my debut on @theifs.bsky.social podcast with @helenmiller.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social. We get into the huge uncertainty around the OBR forecast, why the real story is the pressure on public spending, and even manage to sneak in a discussion on PuFins (not the birds!)