Not true for *forecasters*. Is true for *handicappers* though. This year we are seeing why the difference here matters. Cook is now effectively saying their "toss"-up category is a holding bin for seats that could go 80-20 or 100-0 for the Democrats. Raters are not trying to forecast until E-Day

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#earlyvote evening update 10/5: at least 1,372,584 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Majority parties of the president lose generic ballot support as midterms approach, especially at the end. It responds to falling prez approval & thermostatic public opinion. Backlash to the Iran War & immigration crackdowns will help Dems, but are consistent with normal cycle

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The shift in the generic ballot against the president's party continues. Although consistent with the historic pace & direction, this should be close to the largest 2-year shift in generic ballot polling on record; see below for the averages since the 30s www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba...

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Very nice application of @owasow.bsky.social's recent @polanalysis.bsky.social article in the latest (paywalled) issue of @gelliottmorris.com's newsletter www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-06... Polling folks, this is one subscription worth paying for

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