G Elliott Morris
gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/welcome pollster: https://wavepolling.com book: wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers polls/forecasts: @fiftyplusone.news formerly 538 & The Economist
👤 Joined on 07 May 2023
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❤️ Beğendiği Gönderiler
"The reason the vibecession hasn't been "solved", and may never be, is the absence of that scholarship." FWIW, I don't think this is true - I think that the various proposals put out by Will, @aaronsojourner.org, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social @gelliottmorris.com are compelling.
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The redone analysis actually recreates @gelliottmorris.com’s analysis, who had correctly compared points above existing party reg which I stupidly did not do. Anyway, track the 0s and 1s for real signal.
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Cue the "time predicts presidential approval" crowd. And one of the best article subtitles: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies pages.ucsd.edu/~skernell/st...
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(This one's for the political scientists) And with this, Converse comes off the top rope to elbow Downs in the face, killing him forever.
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That's why I "hired" Strength in Numbers with my subscription.
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