Our forecast still gives Sen. Mike Rounds a 95% chance to win, but South Dakota U.S. Senate has shifted to Likely R, joining Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina. SC is nearing Lean R, with Darlene Graham at 81%. Republicans win all four in the vast majority of simulations.

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These posts are only three hours apart

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Update of ncearly.peark.es after day 2 of early vote. A better day for Republicans but they’re still way behind Dem/Unaf bogies. While Ds are crushing their 2022 benchmark on a same-voter basis, Rs are lagging. Modeled low propensity voters are turning out huge for D, weak for R, & strong for Unaf.

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Big turnout in the Black Belt esp CD2 territory - something to watch for read-throughs nationally.

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