Garrett Herrin

garrettherrin.bsky.social

12 September 2026 19:34

In the Montana U.S. Senate race, an average of polls released since July (including an Alme internal) suggests Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead’s combined support exceeds Kurt Alme’s by >4 pts. 9/7 Rutgers: ⚪🔵 +8 8/25 Peak: 🔴 +2 (Alme internal) 8/4 Hart: 🟡 Even 7/26 GQR: ⚪🔵 +8 7/16 Bullfinch: ⚪🔵 +10

Garrett Herrin

garrettherrin.bsky.social

04 September 2026 02:14

Dan Osborn’s events have leaned heavily on town halls and direct voter contact across Nebraska. A larger share of Pete Ricketts’s activity comes from public-facing appearances tied to his incumbency that qualify under our methodology, with gaps while he is in DC.

Garrett Herrin

garrettherrin.bsky.social

02 September 2026 23:56

This race is as close as it gets: on the ground, in the polls, and in our forecast. Our forecasted vote share: Acton +0.2 Our polling average: Acton +0.3

Garrett Herrin

garrettherrin.bsky.social

02 September 2026 22:27

In the Iowa governor’s race, Rob Sand has barnstormed the state, holding more than 100 campaign events since winning the primary, most of them town halls. After a slower start, Zach Lahn has ramped up his schedule, focusing largely on meet-and-greets.

Garrett Herrin

garrettherrin.bsky.social

19 August 2026 03:21

James Fishback won or tied in 10 precincts on and around Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee.