New NY Fed research finds that: (1) tariff pass-through through import prices was 1-to-1, (2) pass-through to consumer prices from increased import/producer prices was about 50%, (3) tariff impacts on inflation peaked in February. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...

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(3) update the probability of the person voting based on their vote history and demographics using self professed likelihood of voting (this varies by demographics, e.g. young people overestimate more). Read @bfschaffner.bsky.social et al. academic.oup.com/poq/article-...

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The right way to do a poll: use a voter file and (1) take the RV universe weighted for 2024 vote or another partisan variable. if weighting to 2024 do synthetic past vote as Nate Cohn does www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/u... (2) create an expected turnout score for voters based on past vote and demos.

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Ok here's what I think is happening: pollsters are all taking shortcuts to guess at the electorate because they're afraid to model it themselves anymore basically even the ones using a voter file who could do a good job of it. bsky.app/profile/chic...

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I am perfectly willing to believe NY is continuing to move right relative to country but I am struggling with the electorates that the top pollsters are pumping out. They seem to be targeting a 2022 electorate and I don't really understand why. Here's recent elections and RVs vs Marist and Siena

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