SnoutCounter
snoutcounter.bsky.social
A statistical modeling site that engages in poll aggregation and election modeling, and maybe more in the future! Run by @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social See here: https://snoutcounter.works/
👤 Joined on 23 August 2026
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- 23 Ağu 2026, 21:09
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Coming at midnight! Brand-new numbers in Maine's Senate and Governor contests! Is Trump a major factor for Maine voters heading into the midterms? Stay up late and get the data when it's released. maristpoll.com/latest-polls
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In VA-05, early turnout has been heavily Democratic, especially among lower-propensity voters. That’s an encouraging sign for Democrats in this Lean R district, but it is important to remember it is still early in the Early Voting period.
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Generic Ballot Polling: 🔵DEM: 49% 🔴GOP: 38% Quinnipiac / Sept 6, 2026
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One interesting thing I found: At this time in 2018, Quinnipiac had a D+14 GB... that being said there are some differences. For one, the Party ID in 2026 was EVEN, while the one in 2018 was D+9. Independents now are D+23, while in 2018 they were D+15.
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In Michigan's 7th congressional district, Democrat Will Lawrence is the favorite. The DDHQ Forecast gives Lawrence a 66% probability of winning, with incumbent Tom Barrett at a 34% probability. This is one of the key Democratic targets and will play a key role in House control.
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