Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.]

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All of this is indicative of a profound shift in the projected underlying cool season precipitation distribution in California. In southern California, the shift vs typical conditions is so dramatic that it essentially looks like that of a different climate region.

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I will continue to to my best to engage, in a prioritized/triaged manner, 7 days per week for as long as it takes. So thank you, as always, for your trust...and also for your patience as we work to prepare for, and get through as safely as possible, this winter!

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On a practical and personal note: I am humbled, but also completely and utterly overwhelmed, by the volume of requests for assistance, analysis, preparation, briefings, interviews, and more. Unfortunately, I simply cannot respond to everyone at this point (even to decline).

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I plan to offer a major YouTube livestream update, and dedicated Weather West blog update, in about a week focused squarely on the topics mentioned in this thread. Details TBD. And I am also clearing my professional schedule to be maximally available between mid-Dec and Mar.

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