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• John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com2.11.2026 18:04

  NEW 🧵 on AI and productivity: Lots of people say this chart shows AI is now showing up in the productivity data. But I made the chart to argue the opposite: a trend that pre-dates AI + only shows up in the US doesn’t look like AI. Here’s how I’m thinking about the data and underlying dynamics:

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• John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com2.11.2026 18:02

  So, lots to ponder, and nothing clear-cut. But for now I think attributing the US productivity data to AI is an error. My full article: www.ft.com/content/7f27...

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• John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com2.11.2026 18:00

  This suggests the story here is not “AI is boosting productivity” but “rate hikes, inflation and other economic uncertainty starting in 2022 caused firms to pull back on hiring, and Big Tech went further in making substantial layoffs long before production-ready AI"

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• John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com2.11.2026 17:59

  More importantly, if we break productivity down into its components — output & employees — US acceleration since 2022 is primarily a tech layoffs story. Output stayed on trend, and unlike other sectors/countries where employment flatlined, in US tech it fell and has kept falling in a straight line.

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• Roy@roysaywhatnow.bsky.social2.11.2026 17:55

  If communities want their councils run properly then they will need to stop electing Labour councillors

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