Anton Könneke
@antonkoenneke.de did:plc:i4bhdrk2htivorqqmr23k2wo
PhD Candidate researching representation and mobilisation at @LSEGovernment
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Resumo
Anton Könneke (@antonkoenneke.de) é um usuário do Bluesky desde 26 setembro 2023. Tem 766 seguidores, segue 2.543 contas e publicou 337 posts.
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An independent analysis by the New York Times finds FiftyPlusOne had the most accurate election forecasting model over the whole 2026 election cycle, beating both prediction markets and other forecasters at almost all time horizons. Congrats team! www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Ver postThe only thing he didn't turn blue
Ver postPreliminary still, but looking like a slightly higher poll error than the average miss. Nothing like 2020 tho—on par with 2024/16. Two weeks before the election I wrote at Strength In Numbers how a normal sized polling error could result in a Dem blowout www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-16...
Ver postMan kann die heutige Union aus guten Gründen kritisieren – ändert aber nichts daran, dass Zentrumspolitiker im KZ sterben mussten, spätere Unionspolitiker als Widerständler hingerichtet werden sollten und die CDU gegen den NS, mit Blick auf die „geistige Würde des Menschen“ gegründet wurde.
Ver postAnyone else noticing more references to Holm (1979) for multiple testing corrections with the Agentic AI boom? I tended to see Benjamini-Hochberg more before as the "more powerful than Bonferroni" example. Are the models just afraid of FDR over FWER?
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