Exactly. Did it alter whether they would go to war? No. Did it give political cover at home? Yes. Same reason Russia does it today. In either case whether it’s consequential or not has nothing to do with whether it actually happens or not.

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*moscow appartement building bombings excluded

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As to whether they are consequential? Who knows? Russia for example keeps doing it, so they obviously believe they derive some benefit from doing it.

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You are moving the goalposts here. Your original post was quite definitive. No “consequence” test was applied. If someone claims a false flag, you should consider them a crank. The follow up an hour later was better. But it does ignore that certain countries do this regularly.

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I was wondering today whether the Kremlin is trying to create a de facto understanding of Russian control of these areas, despite (or because of) their failure to capture them, in order to create an artificial anchoring in future peace negotiations. I'm sure these tactics have worked before.

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