System Margin

System Margin

systemmargin.bsky.social

Risk-first process. Constraints and bottlenecks in energy, AI and critical metals. Process over narrative.

👤 Joined on 07 February 2026

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AI manics set to panic as Anthropic confirms *flat* ARR in 3Q. If Jul 26 ARR was 65bln, and total 3Q26 revenue was 67.2bln annualized, then basically no ARR growth. Even worse than the Tickerplus estimates, which were already on the low end of most trackers.

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A prevalent market commentary has been that the AI boom is so inevitable it is insensitive to central bank tightening, but maybe just maybe a capital intensive project is in fact sensitive to the cost of capital. Maybe math and ROÍ do in fact matter to investors…

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🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📈📈 Brent futures hit $110 for 1st time since May and term structure strengthened amid rumours of damage to Saudi oil infrastructure and fears of escalation in both the US-Iran and Saudi-Houthi conflicts Summary below, full report in replies:

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Anthropic's cyber-evaluation prompts said Claude had no internet access, yet three incidents reached real organizations. I would require evidence of enforced network and tool limits before expanding an agent's permissions. https://markhuang.ai/news/claude-no-internet-live-network

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The fixed costs point is sharp. Waiting two quarters makes sense until it's clear whether Codex can drive revenue growth.

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