Happy to share a new working paper: "Machine Learning Models Trained on a Longitudinal Survey Dataset Poorly Predict Hundreds of Life Outcomes" arxiv.org/abs/2610.17115 You can hear Emily Cantrell present it Thursday Oct 15 at Oxford: metrics-and-models.github.io (online participation possible)

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It's whatever this is 😉 journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

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I skimmed this and it is not nearly as good as the recent paper in SM. I recommend Ruttenauer and Aksoy instead. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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peter hull comparing TWFE and modern DIDs & it seems TWFE is OK. people will go "YOU SEE IT DIDN'T MATTER AFTER ALL" but regardless of whether TWFE is ultimately useful or not that all DiD chaos was a net good because it clarified the estimand. tinyurl.com/twfevsdid

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New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

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