A country with a persistent current account surplus is an exporter of savings, so " #Germany needs foreign capital" is hard to square with the sectoral balances. The binding constraint is expected demand, not loanable funds,

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#AI tokens are getting cheaper, but that does not necessarily mean AI companies are becoming less profitable. The crucial question is whether the price of a token is falling faster or more slowly than the cost of producing it — , chart @alphaville.ft.com www.ft.com/content/9618...

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Ok. So while the CDS prices are informative about possible problems, the CDS market is not likely to be a problem itself.

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For many years I have been unhappy with the discourse around preregistration. Not because I disagree with the idea, but because there are parts of it that just didn’t make full sense to me. New paper with Zion Little and Keith Schnakenberg tries to work them out. 🧵

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In a different direction - I wonder who is selling all this insurance?

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