PS: Political Science & Politics

pspolisci.bsky.social

20 October 2026 00:00

Thomas Gruca and Thomas A. Rietz compare forecasts IEM and Kalshi market forecasts for the control of congress resulting from the 2026 midterm elections. Read their paper here: tinyurl.com/7jkrhahr #polisky

PS: Political Science & Politics

pspolisci.bsky.social

20 October 2026 00:00

Can AI respondents track pre-election public opinion? The CASM-inspired personae update beyond demographic baselines, but overstate Democratic support in 2026 US House polling. Read more, here: tinyurl.com/ym3w9y49 #polisky

PS: Political Science & Politics

pspolisci.bsky.social

20 October 2026 00:00

"We show that the end of Gallup's canonical approval series does not hinder our forecast by developing a novel Gallup proxy, derived from RealClearPolling poll averages. This proxy could be an essential tool for future forecasting efforts." Check it out: tinyurl.com/mpewcbsj #polisky

PS: Political Science & Politics

pspolisci.bsky.social

20 October 2026 00:00

"The Political History forecasts for 2026 point to Democratic Party victories in the House (78% likelihood of winning control) and Senate (66% probability of winning control)." Read more, here: tinyurl.com/3k5k3xjb #polisky

PS: Political Science & Politics

pspolisci.bsky.social

20 October 2026 00:00

The revised Political Economy Forecast model for 2026 predicts that Democrats will win control of the House and Senate. Read the full paper here: tinyurl.com/3hv2dhsh #polisky