webberweather.bsky.social
Gov't meteorologist. UNCC & NCSU Alum. Specializes in Climate Dynamics & S2S variability. Opinions are my own & not a reflection of my employer. webberweather.com
👤 Joined on 04 December 2023
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- 04 Ara 2023, 13:47
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A cool verification tidbit: since the Google DeepMind (GDMI) went "live" last year at NHC, it's been the most accurate track forecast 2-3 times as often as OFCL and 4-5 times as often as any of the physics models. For intensity, OFCL is still most frequently the best forecast, except at 5 days.
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New ENSO plot! There's now a scatterplot comparing Niño 3.4 (or RONI) to the ENSO Longitude Index. Good way to tell how east- or west-based it is! So far given an ELI slightly more east than 1997 with similar RONI, it would imply that 2026 is similarly or even more east-based
Show PostAnd so far, to an extent, this event is even outdoing 1997-98!
Show PostIn July, the equatorial subsurface east of the dateline was warmer than it has ever been, beating 1997's peak by 0.36°C! This value tends to peak in the fall so we may still have more to go. Yet another record broken by this very strong El Niño event!
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The latest monthly outlook for Alaska.
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