joshrosenb.bsky.social

14 October 2025 22:54

I painstakingly computed the exact probabilities as 113/1944 and 910405/2519424.

Jason Weisman

jlw12.bsky.social

26 August 2025 04:26

#thisweeksfiddler Miles Probability 3 17/256 3.5 32/256 4 24.75/256 4.5 72/256 5 9.1875/256 5.5 33/256 6 20.0625/256 6.5 48/256 Avg = 3*17/256+3.5*32/256+4*(24+3/4)/256+4.5*72/256+5*(9+3/16)/256+5.5*33/256+6*(20+1/16)/256+6.5*48/256 = 19933/4096 ~ 4.8665 miles

Jason Weisman

jlw12.bsky.social

19 August 2025 14:34

#ThisWeeksFiddler EC: W= $90 cash with 50% likelihood from the outset. First bet the entire $55 on one side. This has 50% probability of winning $55 cash while retaining the $55 of vouchers. After winning use the same strategy as in Part 1 to add $35 or more cash guaranteed.

Tom Keith

tomkeith.bsky.social

19 August 2025 14:34

#ThisWeeksFiddler @xaqwg.bsky.social: This chart shows the probability of being able to achieve various dollar amounts of cash if you start with three $10 vouchers and one $25 voucher and play optimally for each amount.

Jason Weisman

jlw12.bsky.social

14 August 2025 02:40

#ThisWeeksFiddler colab.research.google.com/drive/1zobjk...