Jan J. J. Groen
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Economist. Formerly @newyorkfed.bsky.social and @bankofengland.bsky.social Interests: #inflation #economy #forecasting. Econ PhD @tinbergeninstitute.bsky.social Views are my own. https://substack.com/@macromarketnotes
👤 Joined on 08 February 2024
357
Followers
85
Following
416
Total Posts
📜 Kullanıcı Geçmişi
- 08 Şub 2024, 16:34
🎉 Bluesky'e katıldı - İlk kullanıcı adı:
@jjjgroen.bsky.social
🚫 Blokladığı Kullanıcılar
❤️ Beğendiği Gönderiler
Also fair that a lot of the big talk hasn’t fully materialized. But I think this suggests we’re not yet at an equilibrium where tariff imposition and the private sector’s expectations about tariffs are aligned - ie this is “bad news”
Show Post
Yep—my guess is 20% is the policy being proposed and they didn’t include any behavioural response or tax offset. So CBO/Treasury would find it would raise a fraction of that. TPC find 20% global +60% China raises $4.5T over ten. taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...
Show PostI agree we can’t take the dollar amount literally given an inevitable behavior response but I assume it’s based on assumptions like this (20% uniform tariffs on goods imports) @brendanvduke.bsky.social feel free to chime in here
Show Post