As we always suspected and later confirmed, the decision had been made long before. HK was getting no democracy that Beijing couldn't 100% control, and the speech crackdown was always going to be part of that process. Whether it would have happened in 2020 or 2047 makes little difference now. 7/7

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6) Again, I'm not in favour of violence. I was especially appalled by the "renovations" some protesters did on businesses z.B. But that's what happen when you push angry ppl too far. 7) The outcome of the 2019 ELAB protests would have been the same – the NSL, the election "reforms", all of it. 6/7

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5) That's why it's important to ask why protests turn violent. Who starts it? Who has the power to deescalate? Sometimes it's the protesters, but it's usually the police. The power balance is asymmetrical. The alternative for protesters is to not protest, which is of course fine with the govt. 5/7

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4) You can say it’s on protesters to not take the bait, but human nature just doesn’t work that way, and the police know it. They know how to get you violent. And even if you let the police do all the violence on you, they’ll still blame you for it simply by being there to be beaten up. 4/7

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3) When the govt's response to legit public grievances is excessive tear gas, beatings and taking every opportunity to escalate instead of defuse that anger, you get what you got in HK. Indeed, lots of research shows that the very presence of riot police tends to escalate the situation. 3/7

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