Avg monthly NFP over the past six quarters (since 2Q25) is 36k (red box). Last Q was 43k. No matter how you look at it, that is some weak sauce. Over the prior 45+ years, you only see numbers that weak either right before a recession (like 3Q07) or right after (red line is ~40k)

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CPI was at a multi-year low before Iran. CPI less energy is still at those lows. It's not hard to figure out why inflation has taken off since the "excursion" started

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Spot the one reason SPX only fell 0.5% in September

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The difference in means (5%) is statistically indistinguishable from random given the high standard deviation of stock returns

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