Texas is the most glaring example but there's plenty to point to, what was going to stop GOP pollsters from horribly slanting things? Dem pollsters call everything within 2 and call it a day. In no world would all the starting "Tossups" all be within a few points now, that's not how elections work.

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Do you folks understand what it means that Talarico is up in Texas with modeled electorates that Beto loses by 12 points in 2018 if we took the margins he and Cruz got? I want you to really consider if Texas could actually be nine points redder than 2018... Or maybe we get a double digit Blue Texas

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I personally think it's entertaining that if you wrote this out people would think it's an overindulgent scene from an Aaron Sorkin piece but it's just a real thing that happened

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I was there and I know how mad I made folks suggesting Dems could gain seats in 2022. No one was in any mood to model 2022 after 2018 and 2020. Why everyone allows 2022 and 2024 and redder now - Refusal to accept the possibility of disappointment and the refusal to recall that 2025 discredited this.

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also I mean look, I don't live in la la land, it doesn't make sense on any level for 2026 to not be noticeably bluer than 2018 like genuinely what do some expect to happen with a ruined economy from inflation, tariffs, etc. a historically unpopular Trump, GOP actively persecuting their new voters?

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