This is THE most important question and the answer to it is going to dictate what the outcome ends up looking like worldwide. @roryjohnston.bsky.social really knows his shit

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Dated Brent (the physical spot price) closed above $130/bbl yesterday. Higher than all but a few days in 2008/2022/April 2026.

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ALL-TIME HIGH DIESEL CRACK The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record. The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.

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Confirmed transits flatlined over the past two days, but they'll be revised higher, so Sunday's high-water mark is a good best estimate of current flow pace. And to be clear: that's still not actually enough oil!

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Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits. The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude.

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