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He asserted that an AI basically would be unable to make arrangements for any kind of major technological or building project (thus undermining some possible practical dangers). I don't know if that's right, but it's a solid prediction that can be proven right or wrong in the future. Respect!

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If we next year we read about an AI successfully commissioning a building or getting a big machine built, then @toobigtofail.bsky.social is wrong. If it never meaningfully happens, I'm wrong. But it's disconcerting to look at confident and wrong predictions from 2 years ago from other folks!

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I really appreciate people who put down markers, though, for accountability. I recently had a fascinating long conversation with someone who knew a lot about business & logistics, & who suggested a big part of their skepticism came from the need for in-person meetings before major projects.

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There is an incredible amount of people arguing things that are self-evidently untrue: A. That AI has not really improved recently. B. That AI can't accomplish anything useful. C. That AI won't get any better. It makes their contempt about the potential for runaway AI seem willfully wrong.

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