Urban Carmel

ukarlewitz.bsky.social

22 September 2026 05:48

$COMPQ at a new ATH for the first time since early June. $IWM near a 3-month low and 6% off its August ATH.

Urban Carmel

ukarlewitz.bsky.social

01 February 2026 18:18

So, the positive return in January is a good sign as “double red” years are stinkers but - given December’s better track record than January - maybe temper your expectations a bit

Urban Carmel

ukarlewitz.bsky.social

26 October 2025 23:58

A bubble with net outflows from equity MFs + ETFs and huge net inflows to bonds? ICI data

SentimenTrader

sentimentrader.bsky.social

17 April 2025 12:08

One iteration of our Risk On/Risk Off indicator reached an extreme risk-off level. This prompted Jay Kaeppel to ask, "Is Risk-On/Risk Off so risk-off that it's risk on?" The results were surprising and compelling.

Urban Carmel

ukarlewitz.bsky.social

13 April 2025 07:45

$SPX 4-day decline of 12%. Here are all 4-day declines >10%. That momentum has usually taken time to bottom - those scanty lines are low retests/lower lows. Only twice did it V-bounce (circles). This is only one-way of looking at the current market, and its all about what Dear Leader does next