Casey Ivanovich

ccivanovich.bsky.social

10 September 2026 13:10

Excited for this work done in collaboration with my wonderful postdoc advisors, @dustybowl.bsky.social and Sonali McDermid, to be out now! (6/6)

Casey Ivanovich

ccivanovich.bsky.social

10 September 2026 13:10

These results motivate expanded early warning systems and cooling infrastructure which have historically been scheduled around the summer. The asymmetric changes in extreme heat seasonality may also increase the overlap of extreme heat with other seasonal hazards, like wildfire and hurricanes. (5/6)

Casey Ivanovich

ccivanovich.bsky.social

10 September 2026 13:10

We check if these asymmetries are explained by intensifying baseline seasonality, given that some regions' spring or fall seasons are already hotter on average. However, this is not enough to explain the observed changes in the fraction of annual heat events occurring in the shoulder seasons. (4/6)

Casey Ivanovich

ccivanovich.bsky.social

10 September 2026 13:10

But this is starting to change! Extreme heat seasons have lengthened in about half of global land areas, and this lengthening is asymmetric. Most regions have experienced a larger expansion in either the months before or after their local heat season (analogous to spring and fall). (3/6)

Casey Ivanovich

ccivanovich.bsky.social

10 September 2026 13:10

We find that historically, extreme heat was well-constrained to a singular local heat season throughout most of the world – even the tropics where there’s much less of a swing in seasonal temperatures. (2/6)