Piecewise linear trends should be connected as we did in our paper. Otherwise you’re trying to describe the time series not with two trend lines, but with trend - jump down - trend. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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I have seen nothing to suggest Julian Smith is resisting this diktat. If he is, and is prepared to abandon his MP position at the next election, then I got it wrong and I apologise unreservedly.

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So far over the line it's modifying horseshoe theory

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Good to get the chance to engage in slightly longer discussion of #Yemen's #Houthis & the broader #Iran #war for the latest episode of "This Is Not A Drill" with Gavin Esler. Here's a short extract on Saudi options, going forward. To listen to it all, click podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

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Having now worked on the donor, recipient and delivery side of aid for quite some time, I had complicated feelings when Trump started bashing Effective Altruism. I tried writing some of them down. They may not have become more coherent in the process. dmitryopines.substack.com/p/effective-...

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