When the polls are contrasted with the massive amount of ad spend on transgender issues, there are signs, first seen in the Virginia gubernatorial election last year, that the high concentration of ads may turn voters off and could fuel, rather than suppress, a Democratic wave election in 2026.

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Polls found that voters trust Democrats on transgender issues and rank those issues as not very important to their vote, and that Republican and independent voters were less likely than Democrats to prioritize them.

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In the first few weeks of October, three national pollsters asked three different questions about transgender issues, and all three landed in the same place from different angles: the anti-transgender ads this year may be backfiring on Republican strategists.

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This is true *and* trans people may still lose at the ballot box this fall. We need to invest in the work to keep shifting this momentum.

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Yes, and, if we as individuals want organizing to move away from large, low-friction platforms - we actually have to reliably engage. Fill out those event RSVPs, actually read the mass emails, join the Signal, show up in person or on the call. Dependency on big platforms is a shared choice.

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