Laura Royden

Laura Royden

lauraroyden.bsky.social

Got a PhD in political science at Harvard studying antisemitism and Jewish politics in America. Mostly just a wife guy, dog mom, and WNBA fan.

👤 Joined on 11 May 2023

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  • 11 May 2023, 23:26
    🎉 Bluesky'e katıldı - İlk kullanıcı adı: @lauraroyden.bsky.social
  • 10 Kas 2023, 05:00
    🔄 Profil bilgileri güncellendi

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❤️ Beğendiği Gönderiler

Found it. 🙂‍↔️ #wnba

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1. BREAKING Elizabeth Holmes is set to be released to a halfway house in August 2027. This was first reported by Rebecca Jarvis of ABC News. Holmes’ expected release to a halfway house in August of 2027 is in line with what some people have been projecting.

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One reason it is a problem is because made-up probabilities is a load-bearing part of their form of "bayesian rationalism"—it's how all of the people working at the frontier labs think about decision-making and risk analysis. Big scary number I made up in my head means the actual risk must be bigger

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One of the problems here is that making up quantifications for existential risks in order to make them sound like scientifically assessed statistical measurements is the cultural status quo of the existential risk community. Like, read anything by Toby Ord or Nick Bostrom — they do this all the time

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Will Stancil
14 September 2026 18:32

Yes: for sixty years, you could predict economic sentiment with an exceptionally high degree of accuracy using a few fundamental measures like real wages, inflation, unemployment. It strongly suggested people’s feelings about the economy reflected their lived experience.

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