lauraroyden.bsky.social
Got a PhD in political science at Harvard studying antisemitism and Jewish politics in America. Mostly just a wife guy, dog mom, and WNBA fan.
👤 Joined on 11 May 2023
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@lauraroyden.bsky.social1. BREAKING Elizabeth Holmes is set to be released to a halfway house in August 2027. This was first reported by Rebecca Jarvis of ABC News. Holmes’ expected release to a halfway house in August of 2027 is in line with what some people have been projecting.
Show PostOne reason it is a problem is because made-up probabilities is a load-bearing part of their form of "bayesian rationalism"—it's how all of the people working at the frontier labs think about decision-making and risk analysis. Big scary number I made up in my head means the actual risk must be bigger
Show PostOne of the problems here is that making up quantifications for existential risks in order to make them sound like scientifically assessed statistical measurements is the cultural status quo of the existential risk community. Like, read anything by Toby Ord or Nick Bostrom — they do this all the time
Show PostYes: for sixty years, you could predict economic sentiment with an exceptionally high degree of accuracy using a few fundamental measures like real wages, inflation, unemployment. It strongly suggested people’s feelings about the economy reflected their lived experience.
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