In the past, US equities weak 1-3 mo after first rate hike, even if it occurs with SPX near an ATH (like now)

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The Fed raised interest rates at every meeting from March 2022 through the midterm election. Also hiked a few times in 2018 before a midterm election. Also hiked every meeting from June 2004 through a presidential election. And the Fed was tightening for all of 1994 prior to a midterm election.

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Remember this? Lower after two weeks. Every. Single. Time. Today is two weeks later and SPX is higher by nearly 6%.

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Over 25 one-hour trading periods, $SPY closed lower just once.

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Put simply, the Rubin Ultra HBM despec is a supply issue. Not a demand issue. I think as much additional HBM will be produced as the supply headroom freed up by the shift from 12Hi to 8Hi. It is not a problem at all.

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