The Unjournal (Unjournal.org)

unjournal.bsky.social

15 October 2026 18:35

Animal Futures update: solid participation, one cultivated-meat question resolved. Save Our Bacon Act 3%, octopus farm 1%, but ~80% for another US state cultivated-meat ban. @metaculus.com @sentientfutures.bsky.social

wavebidder.bsky.social

15 September 2026 22:26

I think there's something useful to exercises like metaculus.com which help put subjective probabilities on events. If you're unaware, experts are actually frequently *among the worst* at forecasting (this is Tetlock's whole project), so I'm not sure the expertise line of argument is relevant.

Say GoodBuy

saygoodbuy.co

08 September 2026 16:23

A WSJ probe found Polymarket paid creators to stage 1,100+ fake trade videos, some showing nearly $900K in winnings on trades that actually lost money. A Columbia study found 25% of its volume, $4.5B, was likely wash trading. Use Metaculus instead. saygoodbuy.co/corporations/polymarket

Brendan Nyhan

brendannyhan.bsky.social

14 August 2026 16:24

Everyone's dunking on this but (a) it's good if people learn; (b) Tuberville needs basic info, let's be real; and (c) a $ version of a frontier model surely provides better info about these wildly complex programs than staff off the cuff. The actual problem is ChatGPT Voice uses a dumb basic model.

Paul Guinnessy

paulguinnessy.bsky.social

22 July 2026 17:17

What's intriguing is that there's an assumption in this #AI forecast that law enforcement will grow. Nursing makes sense. Both really aren't very well paying careers though compared to those expected to decrease, like lawyers.