Andreas Trautner
trautner13.bsky.social
Physicist at CFTP IST Lisbon -- back to social media with advent of bsky. Ideas are my own. Opt in to any of my ideas and net out -- I'm gonna expect 10% royalties.
👤 Joined on 26 November 2024
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- 26 Kas 2024, 22:33
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Suspecting some sort of blow up related to AI is happening in the background, but will will clear eventually like the previous one. Unless the bubble is popping completely and we're near an imminent crash, the move in yields should not sustain yet.
Show PostEven though I had 2028 leaps, taking the opportunity to exit TLT for +25% here on the averaged down position. I expect we get a low retest to reenter. Yellow dotted line is previous ATL + 55 EMA in blue. Very strange to see yields popping this much on hot CPI/PPI and retail sales.
Show PostIf we somehow out-rotate a SPX correction once again, around end of next week it will be time to go long regardless of where price is.
Show PostTomorrow we kick off earnings with $PEP. If the market's assumption is invalidated maybe we finally get that breadth recovery rally (still with market flatish since it would be rotation out of tech most likely).
Show PostThesis is the same. Bounce has been feeble and without meaningful improvements in breadth. We got a technical break in the AI trade. Both are bearish. Holdouts are MAGS & software. No one wants to commit either way before CPI, so likely nothing big happens until Wed. Have to wait and see.
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