My theory is that Apple TV makes no money but is such a rounding error in terms of Apple's overall spending that nobody there wants to draw too much attention to it in case someone senior notices it and shuts them down

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okay reading up on these folks and here’s my initial assessment

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A lot depends on how you define “decisive” but I’d put my money on ‘41. Barbarossa failing is really the point of no return, as from that point you have German and Soviet forces confronting each other with vastly unequal supply lines, preventing the Germans from replicating their earlier success.

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IMO overfocusing on 1941 is an error, ironically one also committed by the Germans at the time. The Eastern Front was more than winnable in the summer of 1942, if anything the Soviets were in a substantially worse position than in the late summer of 1941.

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I say 41 because although the Germans inflicted enormous losses on the Soviets, they were also pretty badly mauled in the process, and then exhausted by the drive to the interior. I’m curious what you see as the German road to victory in 42.

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