futures.csis.org
Futures Lab brings empirical rigor to foresight and policy using computational social science, data science, and AI/ML.
👤 Joined on 25 August 2025
Followers
Following
Total Posts
@csisfutureslab.bsky.social@csisfutureslab.bsky.social → @futures.csis.orgThis morning, Iran pushed an early claim that it had struck a U.S. Navy vessel — a claim the U.S. quickly denied. That denial matters because modern conflict is not just fought on the battlefield. It is also fought in the information space.
Show PostToday, Nico Vacca and I are releasing a new @csis.org @futures.csis.org white paper that analyzes data from this very platform: “Tapping into America’s Distaste for Forever Wars: The Spread of Iranian Narratives on Bluesky.”
Show PostWe analyzed more than 9,000 Bluesky posts and found three recurring Iran-aligned narratives aimed at U.S. and Western audiences: 1. Iran as both victimized and successful 2. The conflict as Israel’s war of choice 3. Division within the U.S. and allied publics
Show PostThe third theme stood out. Posts amplifying public divisions were the highest performing in our dataset, averaging 150 reposts, 470 likes, and 28 replies. Division is not incidental to this kind of campaign. It is the point.
Show PostOur takeaway: Iran may be under pressure militarily, but it is still competing aggressively for influence online. The U.S. and its partners need to counter disinformation faster, more transparently, and with visuals that can compete in the same information environment.
Show Post