What level of ballot fatigue were you factoring in? In the BES, 93% of respondents who were scoring both Conservatives and Reform UK "0" in favourability were ranking the Conservatives above Reform. The level of anti-Reform feeling is huge, so many will be highly motivated to rank them last.

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Is British politics uniquely short-termist? Voters seem to think so. @philipjcowley.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and I just released @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling on political short/long-termism across Europe. The UK stands out from its neighbours. www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/research...

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One oft overlooked problem with the “Burnham should call an early election” narrative is the collapse of Labour in both Scotland and Wales. Even with the modest recent poll recovery, Labour looks certain to lose dozens of seats - and losing almost all their seats outside Eng is a real risk

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The Tories nudge ahead of Reform on seats in our Nowcast as Reform's slump continues. Labour are out in front. 🌹 Lab — 296 🌳 Con — 109 ➡️ Ref — 96 🔶 LD — 72 🎗️ SNP — 45 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 GPEW — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

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Amazing how so many ‘Eurosceptics’ have turned out to be racists. I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.

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