isthisvalid123445.bsky.social

20 October 2026 10:23

delayed impact of interest rates? just an outlier?

Kevin Bonham

kevinbonham.bsky.social

11 October 2026 11:08

Correction to my conversion figures for Resolve. 2PP should have been ALP 52.2 vs L-NP (+1.3) ALP vs ON should have been 52.6 to ALP (+1.6)

Kevin Bonham

kevinbonham.bsky.social

11 October 2026 11:08

#Newspoll ALP 29 L-NP 20 ON 28 Grn 14 Ind/other 9 No 2PP. My estimate ALP 53.5 vs L-NP (+2.3) My ALP vs ON estimate 52.3 to ALP (+2.1)

Kevin Bonham

kevinbonham.bsky.social

11 October 2026 10:33

#ResolvePM ALP 29 L-NP 23 ON 25 Grn 12 IND 6 others 5 No 2PP published. My estimate ALP 52.8 vs L-NP (+1.9) My ALP vs ON estimate 53.3 to ALP (+2.3)

Kevin Bonham

kevinbonham.bsky.social

08 October 2026 13:22

You don't need to be a billionaire to buy good polling analysis. This aint it. Nos are for Vic federal subsamples of <400 votes. Start point Jun 2 was an outlier (ON have no other reading above 27 in the series). End point ian outlier for GRNs and already out of date, now back to 15. #springst