Owen Winter

owenwntr.bsky.social

20 October 2026 21:50

Accounting for house effects, Lula has risen by around 2pts since the first round, while Bolsanaro has remained steady. Quite noisy data though

Owen Winter

owenwntr.bsky.social

18 October 2026 15:58

Just for fun: if you optimise a line across England to best-explain differences in voting patterns (after accounting for demographics), you don't get a North-South divide but a South West-North East divide

YouGov

yougov.co.uk

14 October 2026 05:37

Our latest Westminster voting intention poll (11-12 October 2026) shows a close race between the largest parties Labour: 24% (-3 from 4-5 Oct) Conservatives: 23% (+3) Reform UK: 21% (-1) Lib Dems: 12% (+1) Greens: 11% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Restore Britain: 2% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)

Morgan Jones

morganj0nes.bsky.social

13 October 2026 07:11

In which I discuss the core text for understanding Starmerism, this @guy-normal.bsky.social post: renewal.org.uk/blog/reflect...

Owen Winter

owenwntr.bsky.social

12 October 2026 22:07

Trump voters are driving the trend. Around 17% of those who live within 2km of a data centre now say they'll support Democrats in November, compared with around 6% elsewhere