Yeah, it's not a red wave poll like so many try to model, amazingly it's also not a blue wave poll, D+2 is a bit of a neutral environment, the Dem advantage with independents is just so big that this happens anyway. could easily be a few points bluer, Gallup ID is at D+11!

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Sure! So the top rows of the crosstabs show voters polled by certainty to vote, and the GOP party ID folks are very slightly more likely to say they are certain/likely to vote than Dems now that may be bias introduced by Siena, I am treating with caution, it does seem very out of place to reality

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I have not - next time we go to Abruzzo, we plan to explore the coast.

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That is my extrapolation of the early vote currently running 6.4 points bluer than 2025 The national GCB works out to about D+7 last year, so if held and uniform (both bad assumptions, but still), this would be a national environment around D+13.4 Virginia itself is likely going to be >>D+15 GCB

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