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Leslie

@feralleslie.bsky.social did:plc:qbprb6zvfdcqqhluhbc5qvjt

I’m a tech writer. Former journalist. Elder-ish millennial. I have AuDHD and the hEDS/POTS/MCAS evil triad. I’m a queer, mixed Latina. 🏳️‍🌈🍉🌻🐸✊🏽 Here to resist and disobey.

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Leslie (@feralleslie.bsky.social) est sur Bluesky depuis le 15 novembre 2024. Le compte a 3 660 abonnés, suit 5 410 comptes et a publié 2 310 posts.

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  • Micah@rincewind.run

    another telling data point is that you’re getting really close polling in every battleground, including brand new battlegrounds like Kansas or South Carolina if Kansas is within a point you can’t tell me that Michigan is also within a point, that’s not how their partisan makeup compares

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  • Micah@rincewind.run

    I think fundamentally what’s happening is that pollsters are terrified of underestimating Rs again and correctly think that underestimating Ds won’t matter as long as they get the topline result right (“I said D+2 and it was D+11” is a big miss but still counted as ‘they got it right’)

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  • Micah@rincewind.run

    I mean “magically add a bunch of votes to Rs” was apparently a thing you needed to do for the last few presidential cycles but it just hasn’t been true in the midterms, and I keep saying it but polls got it wildly wrong in VA and NJ last year by overestimating Rs

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  • Micah@rincewind.run

    the reason a bunch of us think we might get a serious polling error in favor of dems this cycle is that a lot of polls, when you look at LV screens, are going “we think the shape of the electorate is going to look like 2022 or even redder in terms of who actually votes” does that sound credible?

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  • Micah@rincewind.run

    like I just want you all to look at the early voting data, which - basically everywhere - shows massively larger D turnout - and tell me with a straight face this is going to look like a Biden midterm election look at the vibes, look at the approval rating, look at literally anything else

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